FatherGarage.com

A new survey from Municipoll shows Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter in good shape heading into the May Democratic primary.

Nutter leads a generic opponent by a 47%-39% margin. In a variety of hypothetical matchups, Nutter leads the second-highest vote-getter by at least 15%.

“Michael Nutter appears increasingly well-positioned to win a Democratic Primary Election, especially a multi-candidate race,” said poll director Ed Haggerty.

Municipoll surveyed 871 likely Democratic primary voters from January 12 to 16. The data were weighted slightly by gender and age. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3%.

“It suggests that Nutter would be tough to beat. But it also tells you that he’s not over 50%. I wouldn’t think that’s a great place for an incumbent to be. H’s been there, his name has been out there for four years,” said Sam Katz, who had been rumored as a potential challenger to Nutter before ruling it out in November.

Katz reiterated that he is not running for mayor, but said that this poll shouldn’t discourage others from taking a look.

“I don’t put much stock in a poll that’s taken in the absence of a campaign. Because as far as the public is concerned, there isn’t a campaign. There isnt a challenge, there isn’t a conversation about the direction of the city. There isn’t a comparison being made by other candidates.”

“If there is a campaign, if there is a conversation, I think it will produce a very close election,” Katz predicted.

There is another interesting caveat in the poll results. Nutter enjoys higher support from white Philadelphians than from African Americans (continuing a trend that is analyzed in a really excellent piece by Patrick Kerkstra in Philadelphia Magazine). 64% of whites have a favorable opinion of Nutter, compared to 52% of African Americans. Twice as many African Americans (16%) are not sure of their opinion of the Mayor as whites.

“Nutter’s strong support among white voters seems to turn Philadelphia’s usual racial politics on its head.  However, his lukewarm support among African-American voters raises questions as to why, after three years in office, Nutter still hasn’t consolidated support in this critical base constituency,” said Haggerty.

Hypothetical matchups

Nutter vs. generic Democratic primary opponent
Nutter: 47%
New Person: 39%
Undecided: 15%

3-way race featuring Anthony Williams, Bill Green and Nutter:
Nutter: 46%
Green: 21%
Williams: 18%
Undecided: 14%

3-way race featuring Anthony Williams, Sam Katz and Nutter:
Williams: 21%
Katz: 22%
Nutter: 44%
Undecided: 13%

In a free-for-all primary:
Nutter: 32%
Fattah: 17%
Brady: 11%
Evans: 10%
Katz: 8%
Undecided: 7%
Green: 6%
Williams: 5%
Knox 4%

Comments (0) | Permalink 

View the original article here

This post was made using the Auto Blogging Software from WebMagnates.org This line will not appear when posts are made after activating the software to full version.

Nearly six in 10 Republicans replied with a resounding “don’t know” when asked their opinion of Tim Pawlenty, the former Republican governor of Minnesota who is poised to form a presidential exploratory committee Monday afternoon.

 The broad unfamiliarity among potential GOP voters in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll is an early challenge for Pawlenty, who will become the first major candidate to formalize his interest in running for the White House.

 Some 28 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents said they have favorable views of Pawlenty, 15 percent unfavorable ones. Most, 58 percent, opted out on the matter.

 In the poll, Pawlenty fares significantly better among Republican men than he does among GOP women. Among GOP men who expressed an opinion, Pawlenty runs about 4 to 1 favorable, but among women, there’s a narrow six-point gap between the percentages expressing favorable and unfavorable views (19 to 13 percent, with 67 undecided). Forty-eight percent of Republican men expressed no opinion.

A late February NBC-WSJ poll had President Obama thumping Pawlenty in a hypothetical 2012 match-up, 50 to 31 percent. In that poll, the president was up by 22 -points among political independents.

How much of Obama’s advantage in that poll had to do with the public’s not knowing much about Pawlenty, a two-term governor, will start to clarify after Monday’s announcement.

???initialComments:true! pubdate:03/21/2011 12:52 EDT! commentPeriod:3! commentEndDate:3/24/11 12:52 EDT! currentDate:3/22/11 1:38 EDT! allowComments:true! displayComments:false!

View the original article here

This post was made using the Auto Blogging Software from WebMagnates.org This line will not appear when posts are made after activating the software to full version.

A slim majority of Americans now support gay marriage, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The results underscore the nation’s increasingly tolerant views about homosexuals, and parallel a string of recent legal and legislative victories for gay rights advocates.

Tweet

Graphic

Graphic: Poll showing support for gay marriage.

Five years ago, at 36 percent, support for gay marriage barely topped a third of all Americans. Now, 53 percent say gay marriage should be legal, marking the first time in Post-ABC polling that a majority has said so.

“This is very consistent with a lot of other polling data we’ve seen and the general momentum we’ve seen over the past year and a half,” said Evan Wolfson, president of Freedom to Marry, a leading pro-gay-marriage group. “As people have come to understand this is about loving, committed families dealing, like everyone, with tough times, they understand how unfair it is to treat them differently.”

Opponents of same-sex marriage took issue with the poll, which asks respondents: “Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?” Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage, argued that the term “illegal” could be inferred to mean that violators could be imprisoned, which most Americans would consider harsh.

Brown, whose group is a prominent anti-gay-marriage group, noted that all 31 states that have put same-sex marriage on the ballot voted to ban it.

“The only poll that counts is a free and fair vote on the part of the people,” he said. “We’ve seen these biased polls time and time again — right before votes in which same-sex marriage is rejected. It’s absurd. The people of this country have not changed their opinion about marriage.”

Post-ABC News polls have used the same “legal or illegal” wording in every poll about same-sex marriage since 2003. Other surveys by the Pew Research Center, the Associated Press and CNN show similar trends.

In the new Post-ABC poll, the shift has been driven by several political and demographic groups whose support for such unions jumped sharply. Men, who previously were less supportive of same-sex marriage than women, now back it at the same rate. Support among college-educated whites, political independents and people who do not consider themselves religious also rose substantially.

Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Christians remain the groups most opposed to legalizing gay marriage.

The survey also shows a shift in how intensely people feel on this issue. In the past, the number of Americans who felt strongly that gay marriage should be banned far outnumbered those who were passionate in their belief that it should be legal. That has balanced out, with 35 percent strongly against legal gay marriage and 36 percent strongly in favor.

Passionate opposition to gay marriage last year in part led voters in Iowa to oust three state Supreme Court justices who had joined in the unanimous decision to legalize same-sex unions in the state. Minnesota, Indiana, Pennsylvania and North Carolina are considering steps that would ban same-sex marriage in their states.

But those victories for opponents of same-sex marriage have lately been overshadowed by several defeats.

Last March, the District joined five states in allowing same-sex couples to marry. Later in California, a federal judge struck down that state’s voter-approved ban on same-sex unions. The issue is now before an appeals court and is likely to end up at the Supreme Court.

In the summer, a federal judge in Massachusetts struck down the federal government’s ban on recognition of same-sex marriages under the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act. This issue, too, will probably end up before the nation’s high court. In a major victory for supporters of gay marriage, the Obama administration announced earlier this month that it would no longer defend the statute in court.

Congressional Republicans have vowed to defend the law themselves and criticized Obama for elevating such a divisive social issue at a time the focus ought to be on the economy and jobs. This week, Democrats introduced bills to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act and noted how the tables have turned.

“What do I say to the idea that this is a wedge issue? I say ‘Hallelujah,’ ” Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who is gay, told reporters, according to the liberal Web site Talking Points Memo. “The fact that we’ve now evolved to the point where the Republicans are complaining about the fact that we introduced this bill because it causes them political problems is a great sign of progress. It used to be the other way around.”

The telephone poll was conducted March 10 to 13, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults. Results from the full poll have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

sandhya@washpost.com

craighillp@washpost.com

View the original article here

This post was made using the Auto Blogging Software from WebMagnates.org This line will not appear when posts are made after activating the software to full version.

 

Two new Washington Post/ABC News poll stories on Tuesday highlight public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the broad uncertainty over the direction of the U.S. government. Digging deeper into the numbers finds differing reactions from Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Almost three-quarters of the public thinks the United States should withdraw substantial combat forces from Afghanistan this summer. Republicans are much less likely than Democrats and independents to think troops should be withdrawn on this timetable. Far fewer overall — just 39 percent — believe troops will actually be drawn down starting in the summer. Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans and independents in this regard.

In the second poll story, just over a quarter express optimism over the future of our system of government and how well it works. Nearly half are uncertain about the future. Unlike most attitudes about the government and politics in Washington, there is less political division on this question. Three in 10 or fewer Democrats, Republicans and independents express optimism about the future.

By Peyton M. Craighill  |  06:41 PM ET, 03/14/2011

 

 

 

View the original article here

As Congress nears a vote on the tax cut deal reached between President Obama and Republicans, two new polls out today find Americans broadly supportive of the plan, including majorities of Republicans, independents and Democrats alike.

Nearly 7 in 10 Americans in an ABC News/Washington Post poll said they support the package, which the poll noted would include extending the Bush-era tax cuts and unemployment benefits, cutting Social Security payroll taxes by 2 percentage points and increasing the exemption on inheritance taxes. More than two-thirds, 68 percent, of Democrats and independents said they supported it, as did 75 percent of Republicans.

Even when respondents in a separate question were given arguments for both sides of the debate, including that the plan would increase the federal budget deficit by $900 billion, 62 percent said they supported it.

Similarly, 60 percent in a Pew poll released today said they approved of the agreement reached by the president and congressional Republicans to “extend tax cuts and unemployment benefits.” And like in the ABC News/Washington Post poll, that included majorities on both sides of the political aisle.

At the same time, both polls found that while support for the plan is broad, it is not deep. Just 20 percent in the ABC News/Washington Post poll said they supported it strongly, as did just 12 percent in the Pew poll.

The public is less supportive of several individual elements in the deal than it is for the plan taken as a whole, perhaps partly explaining its soft support. While 72 percent in the ABC News/Washington Post poll backed extending unemployment benefits, fewer, 54 percent, said they supported extending the Bush-era tax cuts, 52 percent said they favored increasing the exemption on inheritance taxes and most opposed cutting Social Security payroll taxes.

Each poll was conducted nationwide Dec. 9-12 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted among 1,001 adults and the Pew Research Center poll was conducted among 1,011 adults.

View the original article here

This post was made using the Auto Blogging Software from WebMagnates.org This line will not appear when posts are made after activating the software to full version.

As the debate over what critics regard as overly intrusive security measures at airports heats up, a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Nov. 21 finds that 64 percent of those surveyed support the use of full-body scans while 32 percent say they invade privacy by producing X-ray images of the passenger’s naked body. Four percent [...]