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The Republicans’ ability to pick up governorships this year has been discussed as a potential setback for President Obama’s presumed 2012 campaign for re-election — the idea being that a state’s governor can use his or her own political operation to boost the chances of their party’s presidential nominee.

But a new study posted at the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog suggests that theory may be overblown.

Since 1968, the report found, Republican presidential nominees have won roughly two-thirds of states that had a G.O.P. governor – and about the same proportion when a Democrat controlled the governorship.

A similar story emerged on the Democratic side, with that party’s presidential candidates winning about one out of three states no matter which side controlled the governor’s mansion.

In sum, as the study put it: The increasing number of Republican governors should not make the short list of the president’s problems.

The analysis did find that, in presidential elections from 1924 to 1964, a nominee was much more likely to win a state if his party also held the governorship.

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Another election year, another recount in Minnesota. The state’s canvassing board Tuesday ordered that all 2.1 million ballots cast in the gubernatorial election be counted again — by hand. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reported that the board accepted a report by the Minnesota Secretary of State that found Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer [...]

SAN DIEGO – Most of the chatter at the Republican Governors Association’s annual meeting here has focused on chest thumping over the party’s recent wins. So, during a panel titled “Good Policy = Good Politics,” most of the sitting governors encouraged newly elected state executives to trust their instincts and have faith that doing the right thing would only help them in the long run.

But Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey suggested that the process might not always be pretty.

Referring to his battles with the state’s teachers union, Gov. Christie implored governors to ignore political advisers who urge against taking on powerful or popular groups. Like, say, the teachers.

“Most people love their public school teachers,” he told the audience. “I love public school teachers, too, but I can’t stand their union.”

When Mr. Christie tried to persuade the union to accept a pay freeze and contribute several hundred dollars for their health care plan, he said, they called it the “greatest assault on public education” in the state’s history.

With that, Mr. Christie really got going.

To believe that, he said, he would have to believe this scene was going to occur in his house: his daughter comes home with lackluster grades. When he asks why, Mr. Christie continued, she answers by saying: “You made her take a pay freeze this year. Now she has to put 1 and a half percent into her health plan. Dad, stop the madness. Give them the 5 percent pay increase.”

The audience burst into laughter, a first for the morning.

“Now you laugh,” Mr. Christie said. “But that’s the crap I have to listen to in New Jersey.”

Mr. Christie concluded with an oft-quoted thesis in politics: When you have political capital, spend it. You will never be as popular as you are in the first month in office.

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SAN DIEGO — The “Daddy Party” put its three new women governors-elect — South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, New Mexico’s Susana Martinez, and Oklahoma’s Mary Fallin — out front Wednesday at the Republican Governors Association conference. But at a press conference celebrating them as the shiny and “changing face” of the Grand Old Party, all three [...]

Politics Daily Editor in Chief Melinda Henneberger is covering the RGA conference in California. Read her event primer below, and check back throughout the day on Wednesday and Thursday for her live blog of the latest news (links will be posted here). SAN DIEGO — At least five possible GOP ’12 presidential contenders and a [...]

Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota has been gearing up for a bid for the Republican presidential nomination for months. He chose not to run for re-election as governor. He has hit the early-state circuit. Everything is ready once he leaves office on Jan. 3.

Except for this: He may not be able to leave.

Under Minnesota law, the governor’s term extends as long as it takes to swear in a  successor, even if a recount takes months. And that could just happen.

The race to replace Mr. Pawlenty between the Democrat Mark Dayton and the Republican Tom Emmer ended last Tuesday in what is becoming a regular outcome in the North Star state — a virtual tie. Out of about 2.1 million votes cast, Mr. Dayton leads Mr. Emmer by about 8,500 votes, less than the half-percentage point margin that mandates an automatic recount.

That recount will start on Nov. 27 and is scheduled to last until early December, at which point the trailing candidate could choose to challenge the recount by filing a lawsuit. Mr. Emmer’s advisers and state Republicans have made it clear they will do so if they feel they have a legitimate case.

“If we are behind and we think that there are issues with the recount, we could file a contest,” said Tony Sutton, the chairman of the Republican Party of Minnesota. “We’re not looking to kick this past the first of the year. We are not going to do things to throw stuff against the law and see what sticks.”

In 2008, a recount in the race between the Democratic senate candidate Al Franken and the incumbent Republican Norm Coleman took eight months and ended only when Mr. Franken was sworn in on July 7, 2009.

If that were to happen this time around – possible, though not exactly likely — Mr. Pawlenty’s presidential ambitions could be put on hold for months as he sits in the governor’s mansion. In a statement after the election, Mr. Pawlenty said that “I will continue to serve as governor until a new governor takes the oath.”

The margin between Mr. Dayton and Mr. Enmmer is much larger than it was in Mr. Franken’s Senate race, and even Republicans in the state privately think it’s unlikely to drag out for that long again.

But if it did, what would that mean for Mr. Pawlenty and his presidential hopes?

It could present an opportunity for Mr. Pawlenty, who is not well known around the country, to raise his profile. With the state’s Legislature soon to be in Republican control and headed back into session on Jan. 4, Mr. Pawlenty could theoretically be sitting in the governor’s chair, ready to sign into law some legislation that conservative primary voters might find appealing.

Such a move would generate controversy – and much-needed national news media attention – since it would amount to a lame-duck Republican governor pushing a conservative agenda with the possibility of a Democratic governor waiting in the wings. That could be just the kind of story that Mr. Pawlenty needs to bolster his credentials with Tea Party supporters.

But gaming the political system that way may offend the voters of Minnesota, not to mention others. In an interview this week, Mr. Pawlenty said that he would not seek to quickly sign any major legislation before the next governor is known. And the incoming state House speaker has promised not to try and ram legislation through for Mr. Pawlenty’s signature.

“If there was a holdover situation, it’s not something you try to exploit,” Mr. Pawlenty said.

Being in St. Paul instead of out on the 2012 campaign trail might not be how Mr. Pawlenty’s advisers would like to begin the year. But either way, the two-term — and maybe a bit more — Minnesota governor has a plan for January he intends to keep: a book tour that aides promise will happen one way or the other.

“Courage to Stand: An American Story” is due out in bookstores on Jan. 11.

Jeff Zeleny contributed reporting.

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