Mark Wilson/European Pressphoto Agency President Obama said on Tuesday that he told President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt that “an orderly transition … must begin now.”
The world’s attention was riveted on Tuesday to the unfolding revolution in Egypt and to President Obama’s reaction.
But it was also a remarkable day in which the contours of the 2012 presidential campaign emerged. Nearly all of the big issues that will form the core of the next battle for the presidency were present — in some way — on Tuesday.
Even as Mr. Obama chose the city where he will be nominated for re-election (Charlotte, N.C.), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008, months before the economic collapse that helped propel Mr. Obama into office.
Darren McCollester/Getty Images Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, at a rally in New Hampshire in October.
In Congress, Republicans were poised to force another, mostly symbolic vote on repealing the president’s health care law, a day after a judge in Florida declared it unconstitutional. At the same time, a senior Democrat in the Senate finally accepted the end of earmarks as a gesture toward spending restraint.
The White House’s attempts to carefully confront the rapidly moving situation in Egypt offered fresh opportunities for his likely Republican rivals to start separating themselves from one another, and from Mr. Obama, in the areas of national security and foreign policy.
And the political party organizations that will form the nucleus of the campaign fund-raising operations next year all reported being saddled with tens of millions of dollars of debt going into the election season.
Most of the other news got drowned out, rightly so, by the stunning events in Egypt. But as time moves on, Washington may look back on Tuesday as a predictor of what’s to come.
Here’s why:
* The Economy. Just about everyone agrees that the fate of the economy in 2012 is most likely to be the biggest factor in the campaign. And so the stock market’s milestone on Tuesday serves as a reminder that the narrative about the economy can change quickly.
Republicans successfully tapped into anger and concern about high unemployment and sagging confidence about the future to win big in 2010. But if the economy improves significantly — or even if people feel like it has — Mr. Obama could turn the tables on that argument in 2012.
That the stock market has regained so much ground recently suggests that it is far too early to know where it will be in 20 months. That uncertainty will shape the debate among Republicans vying for their party’s nomination and the president’s strategy heading into next year.
The Nominating City: As my colleague Jeff Zeleny reports, Mr. Obama’s decision to hold the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte was meant as a clear signal that will help determine Mr. Obama’s strategy and how the Republicans counter him.
White House aides said they were determined to once again play to win states in the South like North Carolina and Virginia, which had long been lost causes for Democrats until Mr. Obama put them in play in 2008. Having the convention in the South, they said, means they are serious.
And even more broadly, the decision means Mr. Obama does not intend — at least for now — to narrow his ambitions to the states that Democrats traditionally win, regardless of losses in the midterm elections. If his advisers hold true to that strategy, Mr. Obama will once again be campaigning in territory that is unfriendly to many of the policies he has pursued.
Health Care: The Republican attempt to draw a clear line in the sand on health care repeal is aimed at 2012, when they hope to be on the right side of what they believe to be an unpopular law. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, bragged on Tuesday that every one of his members would vote for repeal.
That all but ensures that the health care law will be at the center of the presidential debate. But the legal case being waged against the law could be even more important if the United States Supreme Court ends up hearing the case sometime in 2012.
Spending and the Deficit: The two parties in Congress and the president appear headed for legislative collision over the issue of spending and the deficits this year — a clash that is likely to set the stage for a policy debate among the presidential candidates in 2012.
On Tuesday, Senator Daniel Inouye, Democrat of Hawaii, the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, finally agreed not to allow earmarks — items directing specific amounts of money for specific projects — from his colleagues in spending bills. After years of defending earmarks, Mr. Inouye gave in to Republican opposition and a veto threat by Mr. Obama.
By themselves, earmarks are not likely to be at the center of the spending debate. But for the moment, they are the primary symbol of the angst that the public and many lawmakers feel about what they consider out-of-control spending. And the fact that a staunch supporter like Mr. Inouye caved is an indication of how powerful the issue is.
Washington Squabbling: Together, health care and earmarks were a reminder on Tuesday that the congeniality created in the wake of the Arizona shootings has already begun to fade. Mr. Obama campaigned on a promise to change the tone and partisanship in Washington, and his rivals are likely to point to the arguments on Capitol Hill as evidence that he has not.
And the Republican presidential candidates could find themselves having to answer for the actions of their party leaders in Congress, who now have control of the House and greater numbers in the Senate.
On Tuesday, the typical statements started flying back and forth from senators. (The House was out of session this week.)
Senator Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, the majority leader, issued a statement with the subject line: “Republicans Should Stop Trying to Take Benefits Away From Americans, Start Working With Democrats to Create Jobs.” Mr. McConnell, for his part, said his party wanted to repeal the “2,700-page bill that seeks to restructure all of American health care and put the decisions in Washington.”
Foreign Policy: The events in Egypt left the White House, and most Americans, largely as observers. But the fact that the revolution was playing out in Cairo, where Mr. Obama delivered his seminal speech to the Arab world in 2009, focused attention on whether he was achieving his goals for that region.
Middle East peace remains largely stalled, providing an opportunity to his rivals. (Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and a possible 2012 contender, was in Israel on Tuesday and took jabs at Mr. Obama from there.)
And more broadly, the unrest in Egypt was a stark reminder that foreign policy will not be absent from the presidential debate this year and next. Mr. Obama’s successful efforts to pass a nuclear treaty with Russia, his decision to increase troops in Afghanistan and his efforts to confront the growing influence of China will all be fair game for those seeking his job.
Political Party Fund-raising: And finally, the six party committees (two in the House, two in the Senate and the two major party organizations) all reported their year-end finances on Tuesday.
Aides for both sides sought to spin their results for the better, and to suggest why their counterparts had failed. But the bottom line was this: the hard-fought 2010 midterm elections have left all of the party apparatus largely broke, in debt and having to start fresh for the next two years.
That is not so unusual by itself. But as they begin a presidential campaign that some say could cost $1 billion on each side, it foreshadows a furious season of fund-raising. And it could predict even further growth of outside groups to supplement the resources of the official, party-controlled organizations.
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Nutter leads a generic opponent by a 47%-39% margin. In a variety of hypothetical matchups, Nutter leads the second-highest vote-getter by at least 15%.
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